Who is ahead in Harris vs. Trump 2024 presidential polls right now?

What’s changed: The newest polls that we’ve added to our averages, which include both national and state polls, are giving the first indication that Vice President Kamala Harris’s surge in public opinion has plateaued. She continues to be ahead in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, while former president Donald Trump leads narrowly in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, but the movement in the polls that we have witnessed over the past few weeks seems to be over for now. The Washington Post is gathering the best available national and state-level polling data, and factoring how citizens in each state voted in the last two presidential elections, to calculate whom voters currently favor in the presidential race. Remember, this isn’t a presidential forecast, but instead a snapshot of the state of public opinion. Story continues below advertisement Advertisement How the national polls have changed since January The presidential election isn’t decided by the national popular vote, which is why we rely heavily on state polls in our polling averages. However, national polls are still useful for understanding the overall state of the race. They tend to pick up changes in the overall environment quicker than state-level polls, and our polling averages do draw on national polls, especially in states where we don’t have a lot of high-quality polls. Story continues below advertisement Advertisement The polls could underestimate Harris’s or Trump’s support A polling average is the best way to understand the state of play in a presidential race, but as we know from previous presidential cycles, the polls aren’t always right. Story continues below advertisement Advertisement The economy could get better — or worse One of the biggest factors that could affect the polls (beyond who the candidates are) is the economy. And if we take a look at how the economy has affected previous elections, we can see that when the economy improves, the candidate of the incumbent party — in this case Harris — does better. (We’re specifically looking at two factors: consumer sentiment, or how optimistic people feel about the economy, and growth in gross domestic product per capita, or the rate at which the economy is growing.) There’s a fair amount of uncertainty in these estimates, however, as there are a lot of ways the economy could change. – This Summarize was created by Neural News AI (V1). Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/interactive/2024/presidential-polling-averages/