A key question behind Israeli attack on Hezbollah devices: Why now?

As Lebanon braces for Hezbollah’s response , here’s what we know about the exploding devices End of carousel Israel, which rarely comments on its intelligence operations abroad, has neither claimed nor denied responsibility for the attack, which continued into a second day Wednesday as more devices exploded across Lebanon. The Israelis did not inform the United States about the specifics of the attack before it took place but told Washington afterward through intelligence channels, according to two U.S. officials. Israel’s government is in turmoil and Washington has been trying furiously to head off a wider conflict, leaving experts and officials to wonder about the timing of the attack and what it signaled about Israel’s intentions in Lebanon. Advertisement play Play now NaN min Follow on Podcast episode Spotify Apple Google Amazon The lack of any major military follow-up by Israel in the hours after the first explosions suggests “the timing wasn’t the optimal one,” said Oded Eilam, a former senior Mossad operative who oversaw international counterterrorism operations. An adviser to Israel’s military intelligence directorate and a former senior commander in Shin Bet, the country’s internal security service, assessed that agents may have taken control of the beeper supply chain, emptied the devices’ contents and filled them with small amounts of explosives. Once that was complete, he told The Washington Post, there would have been limited time to act: “The level of suspicion is high, and it takes only one to explode [unintentionally] for the operation to be burned.” Other former Israeli intelligence officials echoed that view, saying such operations — months, if not years, in the making — have a brief shelf life after being put in motion. “It was a ‘use it or lose it’ moment,” he said. Advertisement “The timing does not reflect a strategic move by Israel, the timing was coincidental because of things that may have happened on the ground that would have allowed the exposure of this capability,” he said. In the case of the exploding pagers, Hezbollah’s decision to switch to what it thought were more secure lower-tech devices after a wave of targeted Israeli assassinations probably provided a window of opportunity, Eilam explained. Strategic considerations, such as whether the operation is likely to land with maximal impact, need to be balanced against the risk of the operation being compromised, he said, describing the attack as Hezbollah’s “Pearl Harbor.” But it was not immediately evident if the operation was intended as a first salvo in a full-scale conflict or a warning to Hezbollah about the potential costs of such a confrontation. Advertisement “We are at the start of a new phase in the war,” Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told troops Wednesday at the Ramat David air base in Haifa. As ambulances raced again through the streets of Beirut on Wednesday, the militant group promised a “reckoning” for Israel. In neighboring Arab states, already on edge after months of intensifying strikes and counterstrikes along the Israel-Lebanon border, intelligence and security officials were rattled by the latest provocation. “We were already well up the escalatory ladder,” said one regional official. “Even if they were trying to send a message, why now?” a second regional security official said. Why do this if you are truly interested in preventing a wider war?” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pledged in a recorded video Wednesday that Israel would “safely return the residents of the north to their homes.” Hezbollah rockets have displaced some 60,000 people from Israeli communities in the north; earlier this week, the country’s security cabinet made their return an official goal of the war. Advertisement Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi approved “offensive and defensive” plans for the northern border, the military said in a statement Wednesday. For all of the bellicose rhetoric and troops movements, Israel’s military preparations did not appear sufficiently advanced for all-out war, Eilam said, noting that the United States is putting “a lot of pressure” on Israel not to initiate a regional conflagration. White House officials were outraged by Israel’s assassination of Hamas leader Ismael Haniyeh in late July, at a pivotal moment in cease-fire and hostage release negotiations. Officials were surprised when they saw the scale of the attack: “We were not aware that hundreds of pagers were going to explode in Lebanon at the same time,” the official said. “While Israel appreciates and respects the support of the United States, it will — ultimately — do what is necessary to safeguard its security,” Netanyahu told Hochstein, according to a statement from the prime minister’s office. The exploding devices were meant “to cause panic, and stress and shock” within Hezbollah, said former Mossad chief Danny Yatom, demonstrating Israel’s ability to breach even the group’s most secure lines of communication. Advertisement “It’s an operation that does not stand by itself,” he said. (Video: The Washington Post) But the former senior Israeli official said that while the initial intention may have been to build on the attack, a rushed timeline meant that hasn’t happened. The last week was a turbulent one for Israel’s government, as reports mounted that Netanyahu was seeking to replace Gallant following months of friction over war strategy. Advertisement “It’s hard to know if he’d be reckless enough to plan to fire his defense minister knowing Israel was about to engage in such a high-stake operation, or the operation was carried out at the last minute,” said Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at Le Beck International risk consultancy. Whatever Israel’s initial intentions before unleashing the attack, the government will now face growing domestic pressure to capitalize on the momentum and hit Hezbollah while it is down, analysts said. “It’s unbearable,” Zehavi said. – This Summarize was created by Neural News AI (V1). Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/09/18/israel-hezbollah-pagers-lebanon-war-strategy/