Mapping 8 paths to victory for Harris and Trump in the 2024 election

Trump wins the Sun Belt — and one Rust Belt state Another path to victory for Trump is through the two states where he is currently ahead in our averages: Georgia and Arizona. But unlike the states where Harris is in the lead, this isn’t enough for Trump to get to 270. Based on his lead in these two Sun Belt states, though, our polling averages suggest he could also win the other two Sun Belt states. That means in addition to winning the Sun Belt, Trump needs to win one of the three states in the Rust Belt to break 270. Any one of the three Rust Belt states works in this scenario, but based on the past two elections and demographics, Wisconsin may be his strongest Rust Belt state even if, ironically, that is where Trump is currently polling worst. How this happens: Provided Trump maintains his lead in Arizona and Georgia, he has a path to winning Nevada and North Carolina. Moreover, Nevada and Arizona are electorally similar, with a high number of Hispanic voters, so if Trump maintains his lead in Arizona, it’s very possible he could win Nevada, too. Winning a Rust Belt state is a little trickier, as Trump is not polling as well there currently, but there are some demographic factors that could work in his favor involving White voters. Harris has a stronger polling lead in these states, and a recent poll by the renowned pollster Ann Selzer found Harris losing Iowa, a very White state, by only four percentage points. If this is true, then it might be hard for Trump to make the inroads he needs with White voters in a state such as Wisconsin, Iowa’s neighbor. – This Summarize was created by Neural News AI (V1). Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/09/23/harris-trump-president-election-2024-maps/