Biden administration divided over Israel’s escalation against Hezbollah

In the past two weeks, Israel’s brazen sabotage of thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies and a series of airstrikes have killed hundreds, including a top Hezbollah commander on Friday. “Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest,” President Joe Biden said in a speech to the United Nations on Tuesday. “A diplomatic solution … remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely.” Advertisement As he spoke, Israel’s military continued to pound Lebanon with airstrikes. play Play now NaN min Follow on Podcast episode Spotify Apple Google Amazon A senior U.S. State Department official, speaking to reporters at the outset of this week’s U.N. General Assembly in New York, took a dim view of the approach of intensifying military pressure on Hezbollah until it backs down — a controversial strategy some are calling “escalate to de-escalate.” “I can’t recall, at least in recent memory, a period in which an escalation or intensification led to a fundamental de-escalation and led to profound stabilization of the situation,” said the official, who, like others interviewed, spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity. Other administration officials are “cautiously supportive of the strategy to de-escalate by putting pressure on Hezbollah,” said Matthew Levitt, an expert on Hezbollah at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a former U.S. counterterrorism official. “They are vigorously pursuing a diplomatic effort, but the leverage for it has been the Israeli escalation.” Advertisement The Biden administration is in “active discussions” with Israel and other countries to secure a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah, unlinked to separate — and deadlocked — efforts in Gaza, according to a U.S. official. Officials said the United States would bolster Israel’s air-defense capabilities in the event of an overwhelming attack on Israeli territory, such as occurred on April 13, when U.S. forces offshore and in the air helped shoot down hundreds of incoming Iranian missiles and drones. They emphasized that under no foreseeable circumstances would the United States aid Israel’s offensive, or fire into Lebanon or any other country, including Iran, which has said the ongoing Israeli attacks on Hezbollah would not go unanswered. Advertisement The U.S. policy of military support to Israel is not a blank check, a senior defense official said. “As we’ve said to them, it’s not unconditional,” the defense official said. And that’s not, in fact, the fastest way to return your citizens to the northern border.” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin “has been very clear that opening a front with Lebanese Hezbollah at this moment is not the path forward to unwind the tensions there,” the official said. Biden and top aides, including national security adviser Jake Sullivan and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, were “working very hard” on the sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly to find a diplomatic resolution to the spike in fighting, said a senior administration official. According to a readout from a Monday afternoon meeting in Washington with President Mohamed bin Zayed of the United Arab Emirates, the two leaders “discussed the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, and our work to prevent the conflict from escalating and reach a diplomatic solution that would allow populations on both sides of the border to return to their homes.” Advertisement “We don’t believe it’s in Israel’s interest for this to escalate, for there to be an all-out war there,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told ABC News on Tuesday. “While we won’t get involved in the conflict itself there,” he said, “we can do what we have to … to make sure Israel can defend itself.” A second senior defense official said the Pentagon had not received any request from Israel for direct assistance since the latest escalation with Hezbollah began. The official pointed to the defensive assistance the U.S. military provided in April when a pair of U.S. destroyers positioned off the Israeli coast in the Mediterranean Sea, a Patriot missile defense battery in Iraq and American jets downed dozens of Iranian munitions headed for Israel. Recognizing that the talks are at an impasse, the Israeli official said the increased military operations in Lebanon in recent days were intended to persuade Hezbollah to negotiate and were not intended to start a broader war. “We think that it might make Hezbollah seek a diplomatic solution,” the official said. We do not seek war, but we will not and cannot be seen as deterred from it, because that will encourage Hezbollah to escalate.” Some U.S. officials are skeptical that the strategy will pay off and have questioned why Hezbollah leadership would suddenly reverse course. “We are attacking our enemies in Lebanon, we are attacking Hamas in Gaza, and we are not in a position that we are waiting for the mercy of the world to support us,” Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations Danny Danon said in an interview. With Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian warning reporters that his nation had held back to give space for a cease-fire deal between Israel and Gaza, some leaders worry that Iran’s security establishment may eventually snap back. “The question is how far can Israel go against Hezbollah before it will be impossible for the [Iranian] president to hold back domestically,” Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide said in an interview at U.N. headquarters Wednesday. “So we’re living on loaned time before there is internal logic in Iran that drives it.” Advertisement Still, Iran does not want to see Hezbollah engulfed in a major war with Israel, said Middle East experts. A substantial amount of Hezbollah’s missiles, rockets and other weapons is provided by Iran, in no small part as a deterrent against Israeli assaults on its nuclear program. “It’s clear that Iran wants as much of the powder kept dry as possible,” said the Washington Institute’s Levitt. The United States, along with Western and regional allies, including Britain, France and Jordan, came to Israel’s defense on April 13, when Iran launched an unprecedented direct attack on Israel, firing hundreds of drones and missiles at its enemy. Tom Karako, a missile defense expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that during that attack Israel shot down more than 550 munitions, illustrating the country’s ability to deflect a massive aerial assault with what American officials have acknowledged was only “additive” help from the United States. Fending off a similar assault from Hezbollah is “probably going to come down to Israeli capacity, supported by U.S. capabilities,” he said. While U.S. officials had hours of warning during Iran’s missile and drone launches in April, that would not be the case with munitions fired by Hezbollah, which sometimes strikes its targets in northern Israel before air defense sirens have time to sound. “They’re trying to minimize destruction because they fear retaliation and they believe there are no red lines for Israel when it comes to the international community,” he said. – This Summarize was created by Neural News AI (V1). Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/09/25/us-israel-lebanon-hezbollah-war/