5 things to watch for at the VP debate: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to the online version of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the campaign trail, the White House and Capitol Hill. In today’s edition, NBC News staffers break down what they are watching for at the vice presidential debate. Plus, national political correspondent Steve Kornacki looks at how JD Vance and Tim Walz’s poll numbers compare to other recent running mates. Programming note: Stay tuned for a special edition of the From the Politics Desk newsletter tonight, where we will be recapping and analyzing the Vance-Walz debate. Former President Donald Trump sees his running mate as an extension of his own messaging — as most nominees do — and he made it clear to me in a phone interview today that he expects to see Vance on the attack against Vice President Kamala Harris on his two favorite issues: immigration and inflation. I’m watching to see if Vance can do what Trump, so far, hasn’t been able to: send Harris’ numbers on the handling of those two issues back down, after they have steadily improved. Trump’s attacks, by now, can feel rote to voters who’ve heard him hit the same marks time and again. Walz has the longer debate record, but Minnesota is something of a backwater on the national political scene. Vance is the less experienced debater, but for months, his team has been putting him in front of tough TV news interviewers to work out any bugs. At the debate tonight, look to see if Walz reminds voters of why he seemed so appealing earlier in the summer and if he leaves them wanting more. Emma Barnett: The memefication of the debate I’m watching for how quickly memes come out of this debate — Gen Z seems to be obsessed with Walz, and there have been less-friendly memes about Vance. As the new Democratic nominee, Harris broke stride with Biden during the September debate by making a beeline across the stage to Trump, whom she had never met before, and initiating a handshake with him. How Vance and Walz’s poll numbers stack up to past VP nominees By Steve Kornacki Heading into tonight’s vice presidential debate, JD Vance has an image problem. In our latest NBC News poll, just 32% of voters have a positive opinion of him, compared to 45% who view him negatively. That’s a net-favorable rating of minus 13 points — one the worst recorded by a VP nominee in NBC News polling at similar points in the election cycle going all the way back to 1988. By contrast, Tim Walz enjoys a slightly net-positive rating, which puts him smack in the middle range of recent VP candidates: Only two VP nominees in the last 10 elections were less popular than Vance is now. James Stockdale, who served as independent Ross Perot’s running mate in 1992, was a genuine American hero. But his story was unknown to much of the public, which didn’t take well to his decidedly unpolished debate performance. (Respondents in all of these NBC polls were offered “neutral” as an option, which many opted for in Stockdale’s case.) Quayle’s image was so battered, in fact, that some of Bush’s brain trust schemed to get him removed from the ticket that year. With tens of millions expected to watch tonight’s debate, Vance does have an opportunity to improve his standing — just as a shaky performance by Walz could erase the advantage he now enjoys over Vance. But if Vance’s image problem persists, or even worsens, the question will become whether his candidacy could cost the GOP ticket votes. As you can see, Democratic VP candidate Lloyd Bentsen enjoyed a 30-point net positive rating, while Quayle was 5 points underwater — a gap of 35 points. After Iran’s attack on Israel, the Biden White House is desperately trying to avert a wider war in the Mideast By Dan De Luce, Carol E. Lee, Courtney Kube, Monica Alba and Abigail Williams The Biden administration’s monthslong effort to avert a full-blown war between Israel and Iran is now being put to its most difficult test yet after Tehran launched a barrage of ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday. But now, administration officials are facing a potential worst-case scenario, as Iran’s attack will inevitably trigger a retaliation by the Israeli military. The last time Iran fired missiles and drones at Israel — six months ago, in a retaliatory attack after Israel bombed a diplomatic compound in Syria — only a handful of the 300 projectiles struck Israel, and Washington managed to persuade Israel to hold back from a major retaliation. This time, regardless of whether the Iranian attack is effective, Israel will be eager to strike back, former U.S. and Israeli officials said. Read more → 🗞️ Today’s top stories ⚫ Trio of crises: Harris and Trump are scrambling to revise plans and tactics as they face a real-time test of how they cope with unexpected crises: life-threatening weather, a war and a dockworker strike that could drive up prices. Read more → Harris and Trump are scrambling to revise plans and tactics as they face a real-time test of how they cope with unexpected crises: life-threatening weather, a war and a dockworker strike that could drive up prices. Read more → 🗳️ When weather and politics collide: Hurricane Helene is disrupting election officials’ plans in North Carolina, where mail ballots have started going out and early voting begins in less than three weeks. Read more → Hurricane Helene is disrupting election officials’ plans in North Carolina, where mail ballots have started going out and early voting begins in less than three weeks. Read more → 📺 Ad blitz: Harris’ campaign is launching a new ad campaign criticizing Trump for saying he has “concepts of a plan” to replace the Affordable Care Act. Read more → Harris’ campaign is launching a new ad campaign criticizing Trump for saying he has “concepts of a plan” to replace the Affordable Care Act. Jon Tester and Republican Tim Sheehy faced off in a heated debate in Montana on Monday night in a race that could decide which party controls the Senate. Jon Tester and Republican Tim Sheehy faced off in a heated debate in Montana on Monday night in a race that could decide which party controls the Senate. Read more → 🎂 A lot of birthday candles: Former President Jimmy Carter turned 100 years old today, and he has said he wants to vote for Harris in November. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com And if you’re a fan, please share with everyone and anyone. – This Summarize was created by Neural News AI (V1). Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/5-things-watch-vp-debate-vance-walz-politics-desk-rcna173543