### **US and China Agree to 90-Day Tariff Truce, Boosting Trade and Markets**
The US and China have reached a temporary 90-day suspension of most tariffs following high-stakes negotiations in Geneva. The agreement, which took effect on Wednesday, significantly reduces tariffs—China’s duties on US goods drop from 125% to 10%, while US tariffs on Chinese imports fall from 145% to 30%. However, certain restrictions remain, including Trump-era fentanyl-related tariffs and the removal of duty-free exemptions for e-commerce platforms like Temu and Shein. The deal has already spurred a market rally, with major US stock indices—including the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and Dow Jones—jumping by 2-3% on Monday. Experts suggest the truce signals mutual recognition of economic interdependence, though long-term challenges persist.
### **Trade Surge Expected as Businesses Rush to Capitalize on Lower Tariffs**
Analysts predict a sharp increase in US-China trade as companies stockpile goods before potential tariff resumptions. Scott Kennedy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) anticipates a “substantial jump” in cargo shipments, mirroring the 15.6% export surge China saw in December 2024 ahead of Trump’s inauguration. Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen noted a 35% spike in ocean freight bookings immediately after the deal was announced, warning of potential shipping backlogs. However, smaller businesses may struggle with cash flow constraints due to bulk ordering, and rising demand could drive up shipping costs. While the 90-day window offers a reprieve, experts caution that deep-rooted issues—such as China’s industrial policies, intellectual property theft, and US export controls—will complicate long-term negotiations.
### **Economic Optimism Tempered by Lingering Inflation and Uncertainty**
Despite the market rally, Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler warned that tariffs, even at reduced levels, remain historically high and could still strain real incomes and supply chains. She noted that lingering uncertainty may continue affecting economic sentiment, with inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target. While recession fears have eased, Kugler expects slower GDP growth compared to 2023’s 2.5% expansion. The truce offers cautious optimism, but with both nations facing political pressures, a comprehensive resolution remains uncertain. As Andrew Collier of Harvard Kennedy School noted, addressing China’s state subsidies and mercantilist policies will require further complex negotiations beyond this temporary pause.
Ez a cikk a Neural News AI (V1) verziójával készült.
Forrás: https://www.businessinsider.com/what-to-expect-us-china-trade-deal-next-90-days-2025-5.