Two sworn enemies hold the key to ending the war in Gaza. Does either man want a deal?

The latest flurry of Gaza cease-fire talks — the back-and-forth over now-familiar sticking points and appeals from around the world — obscures a grim truth about the monthslong efforts to end the Israel-Hamas war and free scores of hostages. Any deal requires the signatures of two men: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. In Sinwar’s case, it could mean life or death. But they may also think they stand to gain by holding out a bit longer, and that war is preferable to a deal that falls short of their demands. He has come under tremendous pressure from the hostages’ families and much of the Israeli public to make a deal to bring them home, even if it leaves a battered Hamas intact. The United States, which has provided key military aid and diplomatic support to Israel, is also pushing for such a deal. It would also hasten a broader reckoning over the security failures surrounding the Oct. 7 attack in which Hamas-led militants killed some 1,200 people in southern Israel, mostly civilians, and abducted around 250 others — on Netanyahu’s watch. The longer the war drags on, the more likely Israel is to achieve something that looks like victory — the killing of Sinwar, the rescue of more hostages — and the longer Netanyahu has to repair his political standing and reshape his legacy. Israeli media is filled with reports quoting unnamed senior security officials expressing frustration with Netanyahu, especially his demand for lasting control over two strategic corridors in Gaza. Both Israel and Hamas say they have accepted different versions of an evolving U.S.-backed cease-fire proposal in principle, while suggesting changes and accusing the other of making unacceptable demands. Yohanan Plesner, head of the Israel Democracy Institute, a local think tank, acknowledged the anger directed at Netanyahu in the local press and among segments of Israeli society but said Sinwar bore most of the blame for the impasse because he had shown little interest in compromising. “If we saw Sinwar was serious about getting a deal, that would force Israel and Netanyahu to expose their cards,” Plesner said. Israel’s offensive has killed over 40,000 people, according to local health officials, displaced 90% of Gaza’s population and destroyed its main cities. Sinwar’s only bargaining chips are the roughly 110 hostages still held in Gaza, around a third of whom are believed to be dead. The release of high-profile Palestinian prisoners as part of a deal is a sacred cause for Sinwar, who was himself a long-serving prisoner freed in an exchange. “Sinwar is very much concerned with bringing negotiations to a conclusion, whether with regard to a cease-fire or an exchange of prisoners, because in both cases, Sinwar will have come out as the winner,” said Nabih Awada, a Lebanese political analyst and former militant who spent years in an Israeli prison with Sinwar. Death, destruction and hardship in Gaza will continue, and could stoke Palestinian discontent with Hamas, with political implications down the line. Sinwar himself, who sits atop Israel’s most-wanted list, could be killed at any time. But given the centrality of martyrdom in Hamas’ history and ideology, he may feel that outcome is inevitable — and preferable to a deal that looks like defeat. Any pressure exerted on Hamas’ exiled leadership is unlikely to have much impact on Sinwar, who was appointed the overall head of Hamas after the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Iran. Sinwar is believed to have spent most of the past 10 months living in tunnels under Gaza, and it is unclear how much contact he has with the outside world. Earlier this year, President Joe Biden paused a shipment of hundreds of 2,000-pound (900-kilogram) bombs to pressure Israel not to invade the southern city of Rafah — which it did anyway. Biden has shown little inclination to pressure Netanyahu, and Vice President Kamala Harris has offered no concrete policy changes. Donald Trump has urged Israel to finish up its offensive but would likely be even more accommodating to Netanyahu, as he was during his presidency. Instead, the United States has poured military assets into the region, taking some of the pressure off Israel. But that appears less likely, with both Israel and Hezbollah applying the brakes following a heavy exchange of fire over the weekend. The mediators have spent recent weeks trying to hammer out a bridging proposal with Netanyahu, but it’s still a work in progress. ___ Follow AP’s coverage of the war in Gaza at https://apnews.com/hub/israel-hamas-war – This Summarize was created by Neural News AI (V1). Source: https://apnews.com/c00b30d31ac8d25592ce63c2398097a5