In today’s multipolar world, geopolitical conflicts have become a strategic advantage for competitive authoritarian regimes, as demonstrated by Hungary and Turkey’s experiences following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. These regimes, which maintain a facade of democracy while systematically tilting the political playing field, have skillfully leveraged international crises to consolidate domestic power. The war provided Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan with opportunities to position themselves as essential leaders for national security and stability ahead of critical elections. By framing their opponents as warmongers and emphasizing their unique diplomatic relationships with Russia, both leaders managed to secure electoral victories despite underlying economic challenges and democratic backsliding.
The mechanisms through which these authoritarian leaders capitalized on the Ukraine conflict reveal important patterns in contemporary power consolidation. Orbán manipulated public fear by portraying himself as Hungary’s sole protector against involvement in the war, while simultaneously using Hungary’s EU membership as leverage to unlock frozen funds. In Turkey, Erdoğan highlighted his personal diplomacy in brokering the Black Sea grain deal and emphasized Turkey’s growing defense industry, particularly its combat drones, to bolster national pride. Both leaders benefited from economic arrangements with Russia—including energy concessions, trade expansion, and financial transfers—that helped mitigate domestic economic pressures resulting from their unorthodox policies.
Three crucial lessons emerge from these cases about how authoritarian regimes thrive in times of international crisis. First, geopolitical conflicts can create opportunities for power consolidation rather than exposing regime vulnerabilities. Second, divided public opinion allows autocrats to frame cooperation with adversarial powers as pragmatic rather than treasonous. Third, external support from other authoritarian states—such as Putin’s economic concessions and propaganda assistance—proves crucial in helping incumbent leaders weather domestic challenges. As the world continues shifting toward multipolarity with rising middle powers, these dynamics suggest that future regional conflicts will likely further strengthen authoritarian rulers rather than undermining their positions.
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