Based on a detailed analysis shared on Reddit and discussed with Business Insider, retail trader Laurence Brading-Munn is presenting a bearish case against Palantir Technologies, aligning his view with famed investor Michael Burry. Brading-Munn argues that Palantir is emblematic of an overinflated AI bubble and is severely overvalued relative to its fundamentals. His primary concerns center on the company’s staggering $350 billion market capitalization, which he contrasts with more profitable tech peers like AMD and Salesforce, and the difficulty in understanding Palantir’s core revenue-generating business. He is executing this thesis not through direct shorting but by purchasing long-dated put options, betting the stock will fall significantly by 2027 or 2028.
Further supporting his skepticism, Brading-Munn highlights two critical risks: extreme share dilution and a potentially overzealous retail investor base. He notes that Palantir’s outstanding shares have ballooned from 1 billion at its NYSE debut to approximately 2.38 billion, diluting existing ownership. Coupled with this, he speculates that the stock’s cult-like following among retail traders, drawn to CEO Alex Karp, may be ignoring these fundamental weaknesses in favor of narrative-driven investing. While acknowledging Palantir’s valuable government contracts, Brading-Munn concludes that its current stock price near $146 is unsustainable, valuing it closer to $50 per share based on his assessment of its growth potential and financial metrics.
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Forrás: https://www.businessinsider.com/retail-trader-palantir-bearish-thesis-short-michael-burry-2026-1.