The war with Iran has triggered a global fertilizer shortage by disrupting shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which about one-third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer typically passes. According to UN Trade and Development, this chokepoint closure has caused fertilizer prices to rise and created a global shortage of natural gas, a key input for nitrogen fertilizer production. While U.S. farmers import only a small portion of their fertilizer directly from the Middle East, the global nature of the market means any removal of supply from the system increases pressure and costs worldwide. An American Farm Bureau Federation survey found that 70% of farmers could not afford all the fertilizer they needed this season, leading many to consider planting less fertilizer-intensive crops like soybeans instead of corn.
Despite these challenges, experts suggest the impact on U.S. grocery prices will be modest. Food inflation is driven by larger factors such as labor shortages, fuel costs, and tariffs, rather than fertilizer costs alone. The USDA notes that only about 12 cents of every dollar spent on food goes to farms, and U.S. farms spent roughly 7% of their budgets on fertilizer in 2024. Farmers bear most of the cost burden because they have limited bargaining power to pass higher expenses on to wholesalers. A TD Economics analysis estimates that even a 2-5% production shortfall in North America would only add 0.1-0.5 percentage points to food inflation in 2027. In contrast, poorer countries in Africa and Asia that rely heavily on Persian Gulf fertilizer—such as Sudan, Sri Lanka, Tanzania, and Somalia—face much more severe consequences.
The fertilizer industry is showing signs of recovery after the U.S. and Iran reached a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz last month, with some prices beginning to fall. The Trump administration has also temporarily suspended countervailing duties on certain phosphate imports to lower costs for American farmers. However, experts warn it may take weeks or months for fertilizer manufacturing plants to return to previous production levels. Looking ahead, the crisis has prompted U.S. farmers to explore alternative soil replenishment methods like manure, compost, and cover crops, drawing a parallel to increased interest in electric vehicles when fuel prices rise.
Ez a cikk a Neural News AI (V1) verziójával készült.
Forrás: https://www.npr.org/2026/07/03/nx-s1-5877344/fertilizer-shortage-food-prices.